MMM Studio

MMMM Studiohard_case · 2022–2023

You came in with nine guesses. Here is what your data did to each one.

The pale shape is what you believed before the model saw anything. The solid shape is what it concluded afterwards. If the solid shape is much narrower, your data taught it something. If it sits in the same place at the same width, the number is your own assumption dressed up as a result — and you should treat it that way.

TV — BroadcastOnly found as a pair

Nothing to draw on its own. Only its combined return with TV — Cable is reported.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup could not tell TV — Broadcast's return apart from TV — Cable's: the two were bought so closely together that any split of the credit between them is a guess. We report their combined return instead, and the budget planner will not move TV — Broadcast.

You get no separate return and no budget advice for TV — Broadcast. Only a test that changes TV — Broadcast's spend without TV — Cable's can split the two. See their combined return

TV — CableOnly found as a pair

Nothing to draw on its own. Only its combined return with TV — Broadcast is reported.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup could not tell TV — Cable's return apart from TV — Broadcast's: the two were bought so closely together that any split of the credit between them is a guess. We report their combined return instead, and the budget planner will not move TV — Cable.

You get no separate return and no budget advice for TV — Cable. Only a test that changes TV — Cable's spend without TV — Broadcast's can split the two. See their combined return

Social — MetaNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Social — Meta's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Social — Meta. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

Social — TikTokNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Social — TikTok's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Social — TikTok. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

Search — BrandNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Search — Brand's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Search — Brand. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

Search — Non-brandNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Search — Non-brand's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Search — Non-brand. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

Programmatic DisplayNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Programmatic Display's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Programmatic Display. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

Video — CTVNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Video — CTV's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Video — CTV. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

Out of HomeNot found on its own

Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.

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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Out of Home's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

You get no return and no budget advice for Out of Home. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

How do I read this?

What happened, week by week

Every period’s outcome split into the baseline the business would have earned anyway and the incremental effect of each channel. The black line is what actually happened. Each channel’s weeks add up to exactly the contribution reported on the overview — this is the same calculation, drawn out over time rather than summed. Channels we could not measure on their own get no band of their own: their weeks are drawn inside a combined band, named under the chart. The shaded band at the right was held out of the fit entirely, so the model was never shown it.

TV — Broadcast + TV — Cable is drawn as one band, because only the two together could be measured. The hatched band is other media: Social — Meta, Social — TikTok, Search — Brand, Search — Non-brand, Programmatic Display, Video — CTV and Out of Home. Its weeks are drawn so the stack still adds up to what you sold, but it is not measured on its own, so it gets no share of its own here.

TV — Broadcast + TV — Cable3.2%

Other medianot measured

Everything else41.9%

What you actually soldthe line

On the weeks it learned from: typically 6.8% outover 91 periods · 88% of the movement explained
On the weeks we hid from it: typically 15.5% outover 13 periods · tracked the movement worse than a flat line would; Better than assuming nothing and repeating the same period last year, which would have been 18.0% out.