MMMM Studio

No channel has a curve of its own to drag on this run.

When we hid known returns in your own spend, the setup we chose could not find any channel’s return on its own, so there is no curve to show how one would respond to more or less money. What your data does support is the total effect of your media, on the overview.

Not shownTV — Broadcast and TV — Cable, found only as a pair; Social — Meta, Social — TikTok, Search — Brand, Search — Non-brand, Programmatic Display, Video — CTV and Out of Home, not found on their own. Why each one is missing

Two different questions, and people mix them up

“Was this channel worth it?” and “should I put more into it?” are not the same question. The first looks at everything you have already spent there. The second looks only at the next dollar — and the next dollar always earns less, because channels fill up. A channel with a brilliant history can still be the wrong place for more money. On this run neither question has an answer for any single channel: none has a return of its own, for the reasons further down.

What your next dollar is worth, channel by channel

What the next dollar into a channel would bring back — the figure that should decide where more money goes. On this run no channel has one of its own.

revenue per unit of spend

No channel has a next-dollar figure of its own on this run. Why each one is missing

Nothing to fund or cut on this evidence

No channel's next dollar can be priced on this run

The test on your own spend could not find any channel’s return on its own, so there is no next-dollar figure to act on, and the budget planner leaves every channel at today’s spend. The section below says what would change that.

How do I read this?

The same channels, with the rest of the numbers

What each channel has returned across everything you already spent, next to what the next dollar would return. The gap between those two is what you have used up: early spend in a channel works harder than late spend, so a channel can have a great history and very little left to give.

revenue per unit of spend
ChannelSpendSo farNext dollarAlready used upShare of the effect
TV — Broadcast$5.1Mno figures of its own — only the pair's combined return · why
TV — Cable$2.8Mno figures of its own — only the pair's combined return · why
Social — Meta$3.5Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why
Social — TikTok$1.9Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why
Search — Brand$1.7Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why
Search — Non-brand$2.5Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why
Programmatic Display$1.8Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why
Video — CTV$2.1Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why
Out of Home$1.3Mno figures of its own — counted only in the media total · why

Channels with no number of their own

Before fitting your data we hid returns we chose in your own spend and checked whether the setup could find them again. For these channels it could not, so we report no return, next-dollar figure or curve for them anywhere — a number here would be a guess we could not defend. Their spend still did something: it is counted in the total effect of your media, and the budget planner leaves it where it is.

TV — Broadcast$5.1M spentTV — Cable$2.8M spent

Only their combined return is known. See it

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup could not tell TV — Broadcast's return apart from TV — Cable's: the two were bought so closely together that any split of the credit between them is a guess. We report their combined return instead, and the budget planner will not move TV — Broadcast.

What it costs you

You get no separate return and no budget advice for TV — Broadcast. Only a test that changes TV — Broadcast's spend without TV — Cable's can split the two.

A test you could run

To tell TV — Broadcast and TV — Cable apart, pause TV — Cable, the one you spend less on, everywhere for 13 weeks, and keep TV — Broadcast running as usual.

A test this long would add little: the range we could give for TV — Cable would narrow by only about 5%.

Social — Meta$3.5M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Social — Meta's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Social — Meta. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

The test under Social — TikTok tells the two apart.

Social — TikTok$1.9M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Social — TikTok's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Social — TikTok. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

To tell Social — Meta and Social — TikTok apart, pause Social — TikTok, the one you spend less on, everywhere for 13 weeks, and keep Social — Meta running as usual.

A test this long would add little: the range we could give for Social — TikTok would narrow by only about 5%.

Search — Brand$1.7M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Search — Brand's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Search — Brand. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

Run this one first

To tell Search — Brand and Search — Non-brand apart, pause Search — Brand, the one you spend less on, everywhere for 13 weeks, and keep Search — Non-brand running as usual.

A test this long would narrow the range we could give for Search — Brand by about 20%.

Search — Non-brand$2.5M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Search — Non-brand's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Search — Non-brand. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

The test under Search — Brand tells the two apart.

Programmatic Display$1.8M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Programmatic Display's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Programmatic Display. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

To measure Programmatic Display on its own, pause it everywhere for 13 weeks.

A test this long would add little: the range we could give for Programmatic Display would narrow by only about 5%.

Video — CTV$2.1M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Video — CTV's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Video — CTV. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

To measure Video — CTV on its own, pause it everywhere for 13 weeks.

A test this long would add little: the range we could give for Video — CTV would narrow by only about 5%.

Out of Home$1.3M spent

Counted only inside the total effect of your media.

When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Out of Home's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.

What it costs you

You get no return and no budget advice for Out of Home. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.

A test you could run

To measure Out of Home on its own, pause it everywhere for 13 weeks.

A test this long would add little: the range we could give for Out of Home would narrow by only about 5%.

Pairs the model could not separate

These channels moved together across your history, so the fit could learn at most what they earned together. The interval below is the joint return the data actually supports. For a pair found only together, that is the only return we report: neither channel has a number of its own.

revenue per unit of spend
TV — BroadcastandTV — Cable
r = 1.00found only together
$1.02$0.51–$1.88

These two were bought as one thing, so model them as one thing: combine the columns. If you need them split, the only way to get there is an experiment that moves one without the other.

Also moved together, with no combined figure because it would stand in for a return we do not report: Social — Meta and Social — TikTok; Social — Meta and Search — Brand; Social — Meta and Search — Non-brand; Social — Meta and Programmatic Display; Social — TikTok and Search — Brand; Social — TikTok and Search — Non-brand; Social — TikTok and Programmatic Display; Search — Brand and Search — Non-brand; Search — Brand and Programmatic Display; Search — Non-brand and Programmatic Display.

What each channel would do at other budgets

Each curve runs that channel from spending nothing up to 2.0× what you spent, keeping the same on-and-off pattern rather than smearing the money evenly — so every point on it is a plan you could actually go and buy. The shaded band is how sure we are: where a curve flattens off is itself a guess, and the band shows how much room that guess has.

No channel has a curve of its own on this run. Why each one is missing