TV — BroadcastMeasured
82%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 82% and the model settled cleanly.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.67 ($0.51–$3.38)
You came in with six guesses. Here is what your data did to each one.
The pale shape is what you believed before the model saw anything. The solid shape is what it concluded afterwards. If the solid shape is much narrower, your data taught it something. If it sits in the same place at the same width, the number is your own assumption dressed up as a result — and you should treat it that way.
Video — CTVNot found on its own
Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.
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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Video — CTV's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.
You get no return and no budget advice for Video — CTV. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.
Paid SocialNot found on its own
Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.
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When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Paid Social's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.
You get no return and no budget advice for Paid Social. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.
Paid SearchNot found on its own
Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.
—
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Paid Search's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.
You get no return and no budget advice for Paid Search. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.
Programmatic DisplayNot found on its own
Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.
—
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Programmatic Display's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.
You get no return and no budget advice for Programmatic Display. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.
Out of HomeNot found on its own
Nothing to draw on its own. It counts only toward the total effect of your media.
—
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Out of Home's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it.
You get no return and no budget advice for Out of Home. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable.
What happened, week by week
Every period’s outcome split into the baseline the business would have earned anyway and the incremental effect of each channel. The black line is what actually happened. Each channel’s weeks add up to exactly the contribution reported on the overview — this is the same calculation, drawn out over time rather than summed. Channels we could not measure on their own get no band of their own: their weeks are drawn inside a combined band, named under the chart. The shaded band at the right was held out of the fit entirely, so the model was never shown it.
The hatched band is other media: Video — CTV, Paid Social, Paid Search, Programmatic Display and Out of Home. Its weeks are drawn so the stack still adds up to what you sold, but it is not measured on its own, so it gets no share of its own here.
TV — Broadcast3.8%
Other medianot measured
Everything else76.3%
What you actually soldthe line
- On the weeks it learned from
- typically 5.5% outover 195 periods · 91% of the movement explained
- On the weeks we hid from it
- typically 11.1% outover 13 periods · 23% of the movement explained
- No better than assuming nothing and repeating the same period last year, which would have been 10.4% out.