Same $49.0M. Move it like this and the model expects $587k more revenue.
Not a bigger budget — a different shape. The plan takes money out of the channels whose next unit of spend is weakest and puts it into the ones that still have room. Every move below is sized by the response curves on the previous screen, and nothing is moved further than the cap you set.
Where the money moves
$1.3M reallocated · 3% of the budget · total unchanged at $49.0M
Money flows until every channel's next unit of spend returns the same amount — $1.01 here. That is what "optimal" means, and it is why the winner stops where it does rather than taking everything. Out of Home loses the largest share because its next unit was the weakest at $0.65, not because its overall return was lowest.
If you’d rather not move that much
Push a channel far past anything you have actually spent on it and we are guessing rather than measuring. A tighter cap gives up some of the gain and buys a plan that survives contact with the agency contracts.
Or change the total, not just the shape
100% · $49.0MLeave it at 100% to shuffle the money you already spend. Push it up and the planner will show you where the extra stops paying — it solves against the curves, so it cannot promise a ceiling the data does not reach.
Takes the biggest number on offer and ignores how badly it could go.
The number that matters most
79%
the odds this plan genuinely beats what you’re doing now
Not the odds it hits $587k exactly — the odds it comes out ahead at all. We rerun the plan against every version of the model your data supports and count how often it wins. Roughly one time in 5, it doesn't.
The red sliver is real and we draw it. A planner that only ever shows upside is not a planner, it is a sales deck.
Channels this plan will not touch
Video — CTV, Paid Social, Paid Search, Programmatic Display are pinned at current spend and greyed in the ribbon above.
When we hid known returns in your own spend, the setup we chose could not find these channels' own returns, so the plan leaves them where they are. Each one's reason, in full, is under its row in the plan below.
1 of 6 channels wanted to go further and the ±30% cap stopped them. Letting them go further means trusting spend levels you have never tried.
What you walk into the meeting with
A spend table your finance team can paste, with the odds, the cap and the withheld channels written into the top of the file. The caveats travel with it — they are not an appendix, and they are not something the person who opens it has to remember to ask for.
The plan, channel by channel
last column is revenue per unit of spend| Channel | Spending now | Spend instead | Change | The move | Next unit buys |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TV — Broadcast | $13.7M | $15.0M | +9% | $1.01 | |
fragileDemand you did not record would have to explain at least 1% of the week-to-week ups and downs that remain in both TV — Broadcast spend and your sales to reverse this increase, so this advice is fragile. | |||||
| Video — CTVleft alone | $7.7M | $7.7M | 0% | — | |
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Video — CTV's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it. You get no return and no budget advice for Video — CTV. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable. To measure Video — CTV on its own, pause it everywhere for 13 weeks. | |||||
| Paid Socialleft alone | $9.5M | $9.5M | 0% | — | |
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Paid Social's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it. You get no return and no budget advice for Paid Social. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable. The test under Paid Search tells the two apart. | |||||
| Paid Searchleft alone | $8.3M | $8.3M | 0% | — | |
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Paid Search's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it. You get no return and no budget advice for Paid Search. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable. run this one firstTo tell Paid Social and Paid Search apart, pause Paid Search, the one you spend less on, everywhere for 13 weeks, and keep Paid Social running as usual. | |||||
| Programmatic Displayleft alone | $5.6M | $5.6M | 0% | — | |
When we hid known returns in your spend, the chosen setup did not find Programmatic Display's return reliably, so we do not report a return for it. It still counts toward the total effect of your media, and the budget planner will not move it. You get no return and no budget advice for Programmatic Display. A test that changes its spend on its own would make it measurable. To measure Programmatic Display on its own, pause it everywhere for 13 weeks. | |||||
| Out of Homewanted less | $4.2M | $2.9M | −30% | $0.65 | |
Demand you did not record can only make Out of Home look better than it really is, so it would strengthen this cut rather than reverse it. | |||||
How stable is this plan?
The allocation was re-solved independently against 60 individual posterior draws. Where those solutions disagree, the recommendation is being driven by parameters the data did not pin down — so the spread below is the honest uncertainty on the plan itself, not on the outcome it predicts.
- TV — Broadcast$12.5M–$15.0M±8%
- Video — CTV$7.7M–$7.7M±0%
- Paid Social$9.5M–$9.5M±0%
- Paid Search$8.3M–$8.3M±0%
- Programmatic Display$5.6M–$5.6M±0%
- Out of Home$2.9M–$5.5M±43%