TV — BroadcastMeasured
91%
narrower than your guess. This channel's spending pattern closely tracks another's, so the split of credit between them is uncertain.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $0.86 ($0.27–$2.07)
You came in with nine guesses. Here is what your data did to each one.
The pale shape is what you believed before the model saw anything. The solid shape is what it concluded afterwards. If the solid shape is much narrower, your data taught it something. If it sits in the same place at the same width, the number is your own assumption dressed up as a result — and you should treat it that way.
TV — CableMeasured
82%
narrower than your guess. This channel's spending pattern closely tracks another's, so the split of credit between them is uncertain.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.06 ($0.29–$2.99)
Out of HomePartly
59%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 59% and the model settled cleanly.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.21 ($0.28–$4.04)
Video — CTVPartly
40%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 40%, so a good part of this still rests on the starting assumption.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.16 ($0.25–$4.60)
Social — MetaPartly
11%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 11%, so a good part of this still rests on the starting assumption.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.27 ($0.28–$5.45)
Programmatic DisplayYour guess, handed back
3%
narrower than your guess. Your data barely moved this off the starting assumption — this is closer to what you told the model than to what it learned.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.22 ($0.28–$5.46)
Social — TikTokYour guess, handed back
2%
narrower than your guess. Your data barely moved this off the starting assumption — this is closer to what you told the model than to what it learned.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.22 ($0.29–$5.36)
Search — Non-brandCouldn't be measured
Nothing to draw. The model never landed on one answer for this channel.
—
The model did not settle on a stable answer for this channel.
Search — BrandCouldn't be measured
Nothing to draw. The model never landed on one answer for this channel.
—
The model did not settle on a stable answer for this channel.
What happened, week by week
Every period’s outcome split into the baseline the business would have earned anyway and the incremental effect of each channel. The black line is what actually happened. Each channel’s weeks add up to exactly the contribution reported on the overview — this is the same calculation, drawn out over time rather than summed. The shaded band at the right was held out of the fit entirely, so the model was never shown it.
Search — Non-brand40.8%
Search — Brand6.9%
Social — Meta2.5%
TV — Broadcast1.9%
TV — Cable1.3%
Video — CTV1.3%
Social — TikTok1.3%
Programmatic Display1.2%
Out of Home0.7%
Everything else41.9%
What you actually soldthe line
- On the weeks it learned from
- typically 6.8% outover 91 periods · 88% of the movement explained
- On the weeks we hid from it
- typically 15.5% outover 13 periods · tracked the movement worse than a flat line would
- Better than assuming nothing and repeating the same period last year, which would have been 18.0% out.