TV — BroadcastMeasured
93%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 93% and the model settled cleanly.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.14 ($0.51–$2.34)
You came in with six guesses. Here is what your data did to each one.
The pale shape is what you believed before the model saw anything. The solid shape is what it concluded afterwards. If the solid shape is much narrower, your data taught it something. If it sits in the same place at the same width, the number is your own assumption dressed up as a result — and you should treat it that way.
Programmatic DisplayPartly
45%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 45%, so a good part of this still rests on the starting assumption.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.25 ($0.30–$4.77)
AffiliatePartly
25%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 25%, so a good part of this still rests on the starting assumption.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.22 ($0.25–$4.80)
Retail MediaPartly
10%
narrower than your guess. The data narrowed the range by 10%, so a good part of this still rests on the starting assumption.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.12 ($0.25–$5.30)
Paid SocialWidened
58% wider
The data pulled this well away from your assumption but could not pin it down: the range came out wider than the one you started with. Trust the direction, treat the level as open.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $1.79 ($0.32–$7.60)
Paid SearchWidened 6×
571% wider
Too few independent estimates to pin this number down.
guessed $1.22 · concluded $13.69 ($3.80–$23.27)
The one thing to take away from this screen
Paid Search is your best-performing and your worst-identified channel at the same time.
Its return looks like the strongest in the portfolio and its evidence is the weakest. Both of those things are true and neither cancels the other. You can spend into it — the direction is what the data is emphatic about — but do not build a plan that depends on $13.69 (somewhere between $3.80 and $23.27) specifically, and do not let anyone quote that figure without the range beside it.
What happened, week by week
Every period’s outcome split into the baseline the business would have earned anyway and the incremental effect of each channel. The black line is what actually happened. Each channel’s weeks add up to exactly the contribution reported on the overview — this is the same calculation, drawn out over time rather than summed.
Paid Search18.0%
Paid Social4.1%
TV — Broadcast2.8%
Programmatic Display1.5%
Affiliate0.8%
Retail Media0.5%
Everything else72.4%
What you actually soldthe line
- On the weeks it learned from
- typically 6.1% outover 156 periods · 89% of the movement explained